More on Deterrence: A Large Majority of 2023 Mass Shootings in Death Penalty States

A common misconception about the death penalty is that it deters others from committing murder.

As yesterday’s post said, the legislative hearings this week on the proposed death penalty legislation contained a bunch (and that’s an understatement) of misinformation on the death penalty.¹ I want to expand on one point specifically.

When Senator Powell asked if data supports the idea that the death penalty deters others from committing murder, Senator Ingoglia (the bill’s Sponsor) responded that while he is not aware of specific data, it is “common sense” that making laws “tougher” would make future offenders “think twice.”

The data shows the opposite.

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Data Regarding Murder Generally

As our recent op-ed published by City and State Florida explained, studies have shown that murder rates in death penalty states are higher than murder rates in non-death penalty states:

• The Death Penalty Information Center reported in 2017 that an “analysis of U.S. murder data from 1987 through 2015 . . . found no evidence that the death penalty deters murder or protects police.” Rather, “the evidence show[ed] that murder rates . . . are consistently higher in death-penalty states than in states that have abolished the death penalty.”

• A 2021 article by the Sun Sentinel had similar findings to the DPIC’s study, reporting that “[a]nnual murder rates are consistently higher overall in the death penalty states than in the 22 without capital punishment.”

But there’s more.

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Data Related to Mass Shootings

Data from the Gun Violence Archive shows that mass shootings occur most often in death penalty states.

So far in 2023, there have been 106 mass shootings in the United States. Of those 106 mass shootings, only 23 (21.7%) were in non-death penalty states.

All together, these 106 mass shootings killed 157 people and injured an additional 415. Eighty-two percent of the fatalities were in death penalty states. Eighty-one percent of the injuries were in death penalty states.

The 2022 data is consistent. In 2022, there were 646 mass shootings. Of those 646 mass shootings, 238 (36.9%) were in non-death penalty states.

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Conclusion

Ultimately, the data does not support the idea that retaining the death penalty has a deterrent effect on murder or even mass shootings.

1. In case you missed it, legislation currently pending in the House and the Senate would lower the jury vote necessary to impose a sentence of death to the lowest in the country. More on that here.